2024 HURRICANE SEASON | DAY 1 TILL THE END - DISCUSSION 2024

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Kory
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Location: Metairie, LA

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2024 HURRICANE SEASON | DAY 1 TILL THE END - DISCUSSION 2024Aug 29, 2024 5:40:23 GMT -6

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Post by Kory on Aug 29, 2024 5:40:23 GMT -6

Ridging north of the system as it is in the Caribbean begins breaking down. If the system develops faster, I could see a pull northward out of the Caribbean over the Greater Antilles and into the Atlantic. We have a mighty big weakness over the SE/East Coast that I could see a stronger storm turning even if it is well south of Cuba...this just feels like one of those systems that turns sooner rather than later. Euro control is sort of what I am thinking for a faster developing system...it is gets pulled due north from well in the Caribbean south of Cuba to east of Florida and then out to sea. Close call for U.S. Coast.

A lot of the Euro ensembles show a sharp turn as it approaches Hispaniola/Cuba where as the weaker ones continue chugging W/WNW.

Last Edit: Aug 29, 2024 5:43:07 GMT -6 by Kory

Located in Metairie, Louisiana.

cajungal Category 5 Posts: 5,893 Member is Online	2024 HURRICANE SEASON \| DAY 1 TILL THE END - DISCUSSION 2024Aug 29, 2024 5:46:56 GMT -6via mobile Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by cajungal on Aug 29, 2024 5:46:56 GMT -6 Just said yesterday not to write off that 🍋 and I was right
	60 miles southwest of New Orleans) Thibodaux, La

Zack Fradella
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2024 HURRICANE SEASON | DAY 1 TILL THE END - DISCUSSION 2024Aug 29, 2024 5:52:47 GMT -6

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Post by Zack Fradella on Aug 29, 2024 5:52:47 GMT -6

Aug 29, 2024 5:40:23 GMT -6 Kory said:

A lot of the Euro ensembles show a sharp turn as it approaches Hispaniola/Cuba where as the weaker ones continue chugging W/WNW.

My pause with that day 10 upper level pattern is how often do fronts send us into the 50s the first week of September? Too strong of troughs and a right bias of models in the 7-10 day range is typical.

Look at Typhoon Shanshan and it's west trend.

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cajungal Category 5 Posts: 5,893 Member is Online	2024 HURRICANE SEASON \| DAY 1 TILL THE END - DISCUSSION 2024Aug 29, 2024 5:56:57 GMT -6via mobile Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by cajungal on Aug 29, 2024 5:56:57 GMT -6 i.imgur.com/u19mGU0.png 😮
	60 miles southwest of New Orleans) Thibodaux, La

shannalynn35 Tropical Low Posts: 35	2024 HURRICANE SEASON \| DAY 1 TILL THE END - DISCUSSION 2024Aug 29, 2024 5:58:21 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by shannalynn35 on Aug 29, 2024 5:58:21 GMT -6 I know it’s still way too early and so much changes but as someone in Tampa Bay, I am not loving this 6z GFS run 🙃 Attachments:

cajungal Category 5 Posts: 5,893 Member is Online	2024 HURRICANE SEASON \| DAY 1 TILL THE END - DISCUSSION 2024Aug 29, 2024 6:03:53 GMT -6via mobile Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by cajungal on Aug 29, 2024 6:03:53 GMT -6 Stronger storm will recurve before east coast/gulf. Weaker will trend more west (usually anyway)
	60 miles southwest of New Orleans) Thibodaux, La

Zack Fradella Administrator Chairman \| Founder Posts: 8,267 Staff Member	2024 HURRICANE SEASON \| DAY 1 TILL THE END - DISCUSSION 2024Aug 29, 2024 6:06:27 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by Zack Fradella on Aug 29, 2024 6:06:27 GMT -6 Aug 29, 2024 5:58:21 GMT -6 shannalynn35 said: I know it’s still way too early and so much changes but as someone in Tampa Bay, I am not loving this 6z GFS run 🙃 You know it won't go there.
	Zack Fradella FOX 8 Meteorologist StormCast - Gulf Coast Weather Founder For Regular Weather Updates Like Me On Facebook Meteorologist Zack Fradella Follow me on Twitter & Instagram @zackfradellawx

Will - Ascension Parish GCWX Supporter Posts: 3,012	2024 HURRICANE SEASON \| DAY 1 TILL THE END - DISCUSSION 2024Aug 29, 2024 6:19:11 GMT -6via mobile Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by Will - Ascension Parish on Aug 29, 2024 6:19:11 GMT -6 Is tidbits down?

cajungal Category 5 Posts: 5,893 Member is Online	2024 HURRICANE SEASON \| DAY 1 TILL THE END - DISCUSSION 2024Aug 29, 2024 6:26:33 GMT -6via mobile Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by cajungal on Aug 29, 2024 6:26:33 GMT -6 It is an 🍊 now and not a 🍋
	60 miles southwest of New Orleans) Thibodaux, La

shannalynn35 Tropical Low Posts: 35	2024 HURRICANE SEASON \| DAY 1 TILL THE END - DISCUSSION 2024Aug 29, 2024 6:35:44 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by shannalynn35 on Aug 29, 2024 6:35:44 GMT -6 True! Debby sideswiping me as a tropical storm was enough here in Bradenton 😫

jimmycarl Category 5 Posts: 1,326	2024 HURRICANE SEASON \| DAY 1 TILL THE END - DISCUSSION 2024Aug 29, 2024 7:04:02 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by jimmycarl on Aug 29, 2024 7:04:02 GMT -6 Aug 29, 2024 6:19:11 GMT -6 Will - Ascension Parish said: Is tidbits down? Seems to be.
	I know less than Sgt. Schultz

bigryan92 Category 1 Posts: 179	2024 HURRICANE SEASON \| DAY 1 TILL THE END - DISCUSSION 2024Aug 29, 2024 7:34:07 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by bigryan92 on Aug 29, 2024 7:34:07 GMT -6 I feel like our radar will explode with rain by this afternoon. I think tidbits is down. I went and looked at weather.us. A rainy pattern for sure.

HarahanTim - Now in Covington! Moderator Director of Public Relations Posts: 6,226 Member is Online Staff Member	2024 HURRICANE SEASON \| DAY 1 TILL THE END - DISCUSSION 2024Aug 29, 2024 7:59:06 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by HarahanTim - Now in Covington! on Aug 29, 2024 7:59:06 GMT -6 FYI
	GCWX Director of Public Relations Weather Underground www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KLACOVIN110

RowBear GCWX Supporter Posts: 477	2024 HURRICANE SEASON \| DAY 1 TILL THE END - DISCUSSION 2024Aug 29, 2024 8:50:56 GMT -6HarahanTim - Now in Covington! likes this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by RowBear on Aug 29, 2024 8:50:56 GMT -6 Aug 29, 2024 7:59:06 GMT -6 HarahanTim - Now in Covington! said: FYI Technology is truly wonderful -- when it works ...
	Short-sleeve pants, no-sleeve shirt, bare-feet shoes = WARM GOOD / COLD BAD = SAY NO TO ICE AND SNOW !!!

Joel Tropical Low Posts: 1	2024 HURRICANE SEASON \| DAY 1 TILL THE END - DISCUSSION 2024Aug 29, 2024 9:14:21 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by Joel on Aug 29, 2024 9:14:21 GMT -6 It's back up for me now.

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